Who’s behind this

I’m Michael. I’ve been watching the UFC since UFC 160 back in 2013 — the Cain Velasquez era, when I got hooked and never left. Somewhere along the way, watching turned into betting: first casually with friends, then seriously across Bovada, BetOnline, and more recently the prediction markets on Kalshi. What kept me interested wasn’t picking winners — it was the props. Round bets, method of victory, and live underdog moneylines are where a fight fan’s actual knowledge shows up in the price, and after enough years of finding numbers that felt wrong and being right about it, I built this site to do it in public.

UFC Props is a one-person operation. No staff writers, no picks for sale, no touts, and no sportsbook has any input on what gets published here.

How picks are made

Every card gets the same process: tape review of each fighter’s recent bouts, finish-rate context (who the finishes came against, not just how many), style and pace analysis for the totals, weigh-in checks for red flags, and price comparison across books before anything is bet. The full checklist is public on the tips page — the picks on the next fight page are just that process applied, with the reasoning written out before the event.

How picks are graded

• Logged at posted odds. Every pick records the price at the time I published it. Line movement after posting doesn’t change the grade.
• Flat one-unit stakes. No “five-unit locks.” Confidence sizing is how records get gamed.
• Nothing is deleted. Losing picks stay published with their original reasoning. If the reasoning was wrong, the recap says so.
• Cancelled bouts are voided. If a fight falls off the card, the pick grades as no-action, exactly as a book would grade it.

How this site makes money

Some links to sportsbooks and betting apps are affiliate links — if you sign up through them, I may earn a commission at no cost to you. That’s the entire business model. The featured book on the apps page is one I’ve personally bet with for years, the ranking criteria are listed openly on that page, and no affiliate relationship touches pick analysis. I don’t sell picks and never will.

Responsible gambling

Betting on fights should be entertainment with a budget, full stop. I bet flat stakes I can afford to lose, and this site will never encourage anything else. If it stops feeling like entertainment, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or use the self-exclusion and deposit-limit tools every operator provides. No pick on this site — mine or anyone’s — is worth chasing losses over.

Contact

Questions, corrections, or partnership inquiries: contact@ufcprops.com · @ufcprops on Instagram